CATA News

U.S. demand for light vehicles has roared back since the sudden precipitous decline caused by COVID-19 that started in March and bottomed out at an annualized rate of 8.7 million in April — a 50-year low — with volume declining 46% year-over-year to 717,000 units.

Automakers increased and strategically placed incentives and attractive financing offers on certain vehicles, dealers adjusted to lockdowns by upping their online sales efforts among other things, pricing on used vehicles remained solid and sales came out of the pandemic doldrums faster than most expected.

 

By the end of the summer, while fleet volume was still flagging, retail vehicle sales were closing in on pre-recession totals.

Although growth is expected to temporarily flatten, with the final months of 2020 running at a 14.5 million-unit annualized rate, that count still is well above April’s trough. Currently, analysts expect the year’s sales to end at 13.9 million units, well below the 17-plus million averaged over the past five years, but above many initial pandemic projections calling for a sub-13 million year.

After the pause, sales are expected to continue sequential growth later in 2021. However, there is more upside opportunity than downside to the 2020 forecast.

One reason is pure momentum. Sales have continually surprised on the high side since the spring, even after incentive spending came back down to Earth after spiking upward 26% year-over-year in April. Since then, there also have been cutbacks in long-term financing options.

What’s mostly moderating short-term expectations are economic headwinds, such as permanent job and wage losses, as well as continued limited availability of new vehicles.

One consequence to the sharp growth in sales since April is that automakers are finding it tougher to restock dealers with new vehicles, leading to an extraordinarily high rate in turnover in recent months to meet demand.

That culminated with August sales volume equaling roughly half of the nationwide inventory the month started with, compared with typical turnover closer to one-third.

Widespread vehicle assembly plant shutdowns in the spring caused inventory to drop to 9-year lows and, based on projections, is not expected to improve much above that level over the rest of the year. Indeed, U.S. light-vehicle inventory ended August at 2.6 million units, down 26% year-over-year and lowest for the month since 2011’s 2.0 million.

 

There still is enough uncertainty in the current environment that pegging sales over the final four months of the year at a specific annualized rate is even more problematic than usual.

By the numbers, sales can run higher than projected depending on how much above normal dealers can continue turning over inventory — which might become more challenging when the ’21 models, with their mostly higher prices, become widely available in the fourth quarter. But, in theory, if dealers can continue turning over half their inventory, there is enough production in the pipeline for sales to track at an annualized rate of 16 million for the rest of 2020.

 

Such a surge could lift total 2020 sales to as high as 14.5 million units, and to the extent sales significantly outdo the current outlook, that would lead to an increase in 2021’s current forecast of 15.2 million units.

 

Still, what cannot be discounted is the possibility of a slowdown. Consumer confidence could continue to fall, and the pace of rehiring might not have enough strength to offset the impact of permanent job losses, including many recently announced corporate layoffs, to keep sales rising through December.

 

Also, pent-up demand from delayed purchases and deferred lease returns in the second quarter could be starting to play out.

 

Furthermore, there still is the issue of supply bottlenecks in key segments to contend with.

 

Pickups are most pinched for supply. August ended with inventory down 44%, and that could worsen depending on how much Ford has to slow production in September and October for changeover to its redesigned ’21-model F-150.

 

There currently also is extra thin inventory of sport/utility vehicles, due mainly to a slowdown in production of GM’s full-size SUVs, which are being re-engineered for the ’21 model year. However, availability is projected to be adequate by November, possibly sooner.

 

Ironically, despite severely lean inventory, pickups are propping sales by outdoing all other segments over the past six months.

 

Volume sales of pickups since March declined only 16% year-over-year, compared with a 28% drop for the entire industry – 31% for the industry less pickups.

 

Initially, automakers reported that higher manufacturer from the manufacturers, juiced by generous offers of low-interest, long-term financing, propped demand for pickups vs. other vehicles. But sales apparently stayed revved up over the summer from nationwide improvements in housing and construction – the latter thought to have been sparked by housebound homeowners doing more upgrades.

 

Heading into the year’s fourth quarter, lean inventories of full-size trucks – the majority being large pickups -- could become a more acute issue.

 

In recent years, combined sales of large pickups, SUVs and vans have been strongest in the fourth quarter. Inventories of full-size trucks are down 35% year-over-year at a time when demand could be about to get stronger.

 

While it could be good for overall sales, an increase in commercial fleet orders could strain the supply of full-size trucks for dealers in the fourth quarter.

 

Commercial fleet volume is expected to rebound faster than rental volume, and Fiat Chrysler already announced it was putting more effort into satisfying fleet customers in the second half of the year. If others follow suit, more overall production volume could be allotted to accommodate fleet customers vs. retail.

 

Ultimately, what could excite consumers and prop shopper traffic -- and maintain high inventory turnover -- is the bevy of all-new and redesigned products still to come for the ’21-model year.

 

Although some intros were delayed to next year due to the impact from the virus, there was no significant reduction in the originally scheduled number of fresh vehicles coming to dealer lots in 2020 or 2021. In fact, Wards Intelligence analysts expect 18 new or redesigned ’21-model cars and trucks hit the market in 2020, followed by an additional four intros in early 2021.

 

The Federal Trade Commission and its regional partners in Cleveland, Ohio, will host a virtual workshop 12-2:45 p.m. CST Oct. 29 to discuss advertising and data security basics for small businesses.

The Green Lights & Red Flags: FTC Rules of the Road for Business workshop will bring together Ohio business owners and marketing executives with national and state legal experts to provide practical insights to business and legal professionals about how established consumer protection principles apply in today’s fast-paced marketplace.

The workshop will begin with a discussion of how small businesses can protect themselves from scams. Featured speakers will include Andrew Smith, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection; Rebecca Schlag, Ohio’s senior assistant attorney general for consumer protection; and officials from the Cuyahoga County (Ohio) Department of Consumer Affairs the Better Business Bureau serving greater Cleveland.

The workshop also will include discussions on truth-in-advertising law, social media marketing, consumer reviews, children’s online privacy, email marketing, data security basics, and practical tips on responding to a cyberattack.

The full agenda and other information can be found on the event page. The workshop will be 12-2:45 p.m. CDT. Those interested in attending the virtual event should register using the registration link on the event page.

The event is sponsored by the FTC and officials in Ohio. The workshop continues a popular series of business seminars that the FTC and its regional partners have held over the years in cities nationwide. The FTC relaunched the series in 2019 with an event in Atlanta.

The FTC works to promote competition, and protect and educate consumers. Learn more about consumer topics and file a consumer complaint online or by calling (877) 382-4357 [FTC-HELP].

 

Eighty-two percent of dealers said they would rely heavily on social media advertising such as Facebook and Instagram for the rest of this year, according to a new survey from automotive digital marketer PureCars.

Sixty-two percent said they would use direct marketing channels, and 61% would use SEO/search marketing efforts to reach customers.

The PureCars survey found that dealers’ digital advertising strategies have shifted since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and so have their advertising strategy plans for the remainder of the year.

"It goes without saying that dealership advertising patterns were most disrupted in the spring, following the initial outbreak of COVID-19," PureCars chief executive Jeremy Anspach said in a news release.

The survey also seems to illustrate a decline in interest for using traditional broadcast media for advertising. That represented the lowest percentage in the survey, at 33%. Traditional print media was next lowest, at 37%, followed by traditional media signage/billboard, at 38%.

Forty-eight percent of dealership executives mentioned connected TV as a conduit for reaching customers.

In addition to where and how dealers will spend their advertising dollars, PureCars also surveyed dealer participants about which messages they will convey to customers. PureCars said it was not surprising that 83% of dealers said they will use messages about COVID-19 cleanliness.

Sixty-seven percent said they would use messages about digital retail/contactless.

PureCars said a surprising survey result was that dealers are choosing to promote payment over price as their advertising message. Sixty-seven percent said they promoted F&I options. That is followed by great offers at 64%, and trade-ins at 63%.

Anspach said after the spring disruption in dealership advertising patterns, dealers "quickly regrouped," and dealership advertising has shown a steady rebound through summer and into fall.

"The dealers surveyed confirmed what we’re already seeing, which is a boost in digital advertising plans for the balance of year and into 2021," Anspach said. "We’ve seen dealers invest in channels and tactics they never considered as critical prior to 2020. 

"These unprecedented times have forced dealers to rethink their digital advertising and sales strategies, inspiring more creative approaches to solving tactical, as well as operational, challenges that have yielded impressive results, benefiting both dealers and consumers."

 

The David F. Mungenast Sr. Lifetime Achievement Award is presented annually to a member of the international nameplate auto retail industry who embodies an unrivaled commitment to his/her dealership and employees, community, and family. It is presented during American International Automobile Dealers Association’s annual meeting.

The dealer association’s board of directors created the award to honor the memory of Mungenast, a former AIADA member who also served as its chairman in 1998. He was known by family members, employees, and those in the industry and community as their founder, mentor, employer, and friend. Dave Sr. and his wife, Barbara, were both dedicated to giving back to the communities that helped make them successful. 

Consider the requirements and fill out the nomination form to nominate an outstanding member of our industry for this award. Please return the nomination forms must be submitted by Oct. 31 to the AIADA by mail, e-mail, or fax. The winner will be announced at the association’s 51st annual meeting & luncheon in January.

John F. Weinberger, a co-founder of what today is one of the Top 120 dealership groups in the nation, died Sept. 12 at age 88.

Mr. Weinberger and his younger brother Herman established the Continental Motors Group in 1962, specializing in the sales and service of imported cars. The group now operates seven franchises in Chicago’s western suburbs.

He began as an apprentice technician. He also enjoyed racing cars and earned numerous podium finishes in his 30s while competing in Sports Car Club of America events, and he continued racing vintage cars until he was 84. Mr. Weinberger was inducted into the Road Racers Drivers Club, joining an exclusive group of famous race car drivers. He was a past SCCA board member and an active member of vintage racing clubs including the Sportscar Vintage Racing Association, the Vintage Sports Car Drivers Association, and Historic Sportscar Racing, LLC.

His dedication to the retail automobile industry included serving terms on the boards of the CATA, the Illinois Automobile Dealers Association, and the American International Automobile Dealers Association. 

   

Continental Motors Group today is operated by his sons, Jay and Joel, and by his niece, Cheryl Nelson, who is Herman’s daughter.

Mr. Weinberger met his wife, Lisa, at a tollbooth in Oak Brook when they both were driving. He did not have exact change that day, so she offered him the coins and her phone number. A few years later, they were married at that tollbooth. 

The couple established the Continental Motors Group "Driven to Care" car giveaway program, which to date has donated 72 refurbished cars to people who have overcome challenges such as homelessness, substance abuse, and physical abuse. He also mentored and provided scholarships to graduating high school students interested in a career involving the preservation and restoration of vintage cars.

Other survivors include another son, Bob; and many grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Memorials appreciated to The Footprints Foundation, in care of Continental AutoSports in Hinsdale. 

 

By Shartega IT, CATA Approved Member Partner

 

Most dealerships retain sensitive personal information such as names, Social Security numbers, financial statements, credit card information, or other account data that identify customers or employees. This information is necessary to fill Purchase Orders, complete payroll, finance a vehicle, or perform other dealership functions. 

However, if sensitive data falls into the wrong hands, it can lead to fraud, identity theft, or similar harms. A security breach can tarnish your customers’ trust and perhaps even lead to a lawsuit.

The truth is, safeguarding personal data is a must. Statutes such as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, the Fair Credit Reporting Act, and the Federal Trade Commission Act may require you to provide reasonable security measures for sensitive information.

 

So what can you do to boost your data and security hygiene? The answer is simple: Start taking security seriously.

We recommend deep diving into how your dealership uses, acquires and stores data. If you can understand the lifecycle of data and how it travels within your ecosystem, how it interacts with your CRM, DMS, or other applications, then you can fine-tune ways to secure it. Protecting your data from breaches and hackers, and creating a plan to respond to security incidents is a must for today’s dealers. So where do you begin?

Back in 2013, President Barack Obama signed Executive Order 13636, which spoke to the nation’s vulnerable infrastructure and the need for a proactive cybersecurity framework for the private sector to embrace and the public sector to follow. A contract was awarded to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and a year later, in 2014, the organization released a 41-page introduction to its framework. 

 

The Framework presents industry standards, guidelines, and practices in a manner that allows for communication of cybersecurity activities and outcomes across the organization, from the executive level to the implementation level. The Framework Core consists of five concurrent and continuous Functions — Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, Recover. When considered together, these Functions provide a high-level strategic view of the lifecycle of an organization’s management of cybersecurity risk.

If you’re ready to start taking security seriously, start by understanding how your dealership uses, acquires, and stores data. Then build your own security policy and solution using the NIST framework. Together, we can make a difference.

 

By Jason Courter, 2020 AIADA Chairman

 

We’ve all heard the phrase "new normal" a lot this year, but lately it’s really resonating with me.

These days, I don’t back out of the driveway without a mask in the car. That’s the new normal. My youngest is starting her senior year on a laptop. That’s the new normal. And sales at our Honda stores are finally leveling off after some pretty dramatic ups and downs since March. That’s the new normal, too.

None of us are thrilled to be living in this new normal (my high school senior least of all), but it’s the reality we must navigate, for now. There haven’t been any magic bullets for running a dealership group during a pandemic. Every success my team has had has been the result of hard work, persistence, and stamina.

That’s why I’m taking this moment, after nine months of tumult, to say, "Nice job," to my fellow dealers. You’re still here. You’re still opening your doors every morning. You’re still making payroll and making customers smile. It hasn’t been easy and it hasn’t often been fun, but we’re surviving.

This new normal will require from dealers a new type of advocacy. It might be a while before you walk through the halls of Congress or shake hands at a political fundraiser, or even vote in-person at your local polling place. But that doesn’t mean you can’t be an active and involved dealer advocating on behalf of your employees and your stores.

One big thing you still can do under social distancing guidelines is hold a Virtual Dealer Visit with your Representative at your store. With the AIADA’s help, you can set up an online meeting between your lawmaker and your employees, give your member of Congress a virtual tour of your store, and help him or her understand the value you bring to their district.

Another easy but impactful action is to be an online advocate for your business. Use your personal or business accounts on Twitter and Facebook to share the good work your stores do with the hashtag #DealersDoGood. Visit the AIADA’s social media toolkit for more ideas on what you can share. And get ready-to-post images from our 2020 Economic Impact Report.

Together, we will show Washington, D.C., just how well dealers are adapting to the new normal. 

 

By Peter Welch, NADA President and CEO

 

For the better part of two years, the NADA spent considerable time and energy combating the narrative that the arrival of Millennials and Generation Z as consumers, combined with the proliferation of app-based ride-hailing services, would soon usher in the end of personal vehicle ownership.

We all know now, as the NADA knew then, that this narrative didn’t actually hold up under close scrutiny. But for a time, it was all anyone would talk about. For a little while there, you couldn’t attend an auto show or automotive conference without hearing from 12 different "luminaries" who all would explain why vehicle ownership was a relic whose demise was inevitable.

But around 2019, the hype started to fade and the reality started sinking in, even for those reluctant to embrace it. And the reality was this: The desire to own cars and trucks did not vanish with Gen X; neither was it disappearing even among regular users of ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft.

Millennials were not choosing to live differently than their parents or older siblings; they were just forced to delay, because of the Great Recession, their inevitable transition into adults who had kids, bought homes, moved to the suburbs and — you guessed it — bought cars. And outside of a small core of dedicated urbanites  — who, by the way, were using ride-hailing services exclusively back when they were simply called "taxis" — the vast majority of even heavy Uber and Lyft riders viewed those services as a supplement to, not a replacement for, owning their own vehicles.

At this point, scores of data have confirmed these realities. So why bring up these narratives now? What’s the point of reviving the "shared mobility will take over" hype curve of 2017-2018 if it’s been completely flattened by facts?

Because another narrative is emerging: The global coronavirus pandemic is forever changing attitudes toward shared mobility and personal transportation. Except this time, forces are combining to dramatically increase everyone’s desire to own their own vehicles. 

After all, if it’s not safe to touch anything or breathe anyone else’s air, it’s a lot more sensible to get from A to B in your own sealed environment, as opposed to a metal can being used by dozens or thousands of other people a day.

Well, I’d like to suggest, perhaps counterintuitively, that this curve might get flattened out with the benefit of time and data, as well. And here’s why: I don’t think the desire for personal vehicle ownership ever really waned to begin with. And if no one shelved their desire to own their own cars and trucks, there are not a lot of people to "win back," even with changed attitudes brought on by the pandemic. 

Put another way, it’s hard to convert folks if they never lost religion in the first place.

Again, there’s ample evidence now that the universe of personal ownership "deserters" of a few years ago was truly miniscule. In fact, pre-pandemic, car ownership was increasing just about everywhere in America from 2011 to 2018 — Uber and Lyft’s heyday. And it was on the rise in our cities, too, the theoretical backyard of Uber and Lyft’s takeover of our personal transportation modes. In a study of America’s large cities, car ownership was either steady or on the rise in all but one year between 2011 and 2018.

And most post-hype, pre-pandemic, credible studies forecast continued growth of vehicles sold and vehicle ownership well into the future. These studies accounted for ride-hailing, bolstering the understanding that most consumers see these services as added benefits to, not replacements for, owning their own vehicles.

Has the arrival of a pandemic changed the equation? At this point, there is lot to suggest that attitudes toward mass transit and shared mobility options have plummeted in the face of the pandemic. According to a 2020 McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey, less than 10% of respondents said they view carsharing, ridesharing or "shared micromobility" to be safe forms of transportation — versus 81% who said that traveling in their own vehicle was safe. 

Similarly, an IBM survey of 10,000 Americans in late April 2020 found 26% planned to use ride-hailing services less or not at all once COVID restrictions were lifted, and 32% said the same about public transportation. Conversely, in that same survey, 17% said they plan to use their personal car more, and 26% said they will use their personal car exclusively for travel or commuting.

 

There’s plenty of anecdotal and even some statistical evidence to suggest that many people who didn’t see the need for a personal vehicle before the pandemic surely do now. But an honest assessment is that it was a small number to begin with. The vast majority of Americans already had their cars and trucks pre-pandemic. And post-pandemic, the vast majority will still continue to buy and need and value owning their own cars and trucks—whether the virus decimates mass transit and shared mobility or not.

 

But what if large numbers of us continue working from home even after the pandemic passes? Won’t such a permanent shift in commuting patterns trigger an exodus of personally owned vehicles? In short: No. Our daily treks to the office account for only two of our average 10 vehicle trips per day. Eliminating our drives to the office may well cut down on our miles driven, but won’t do anything to reduce our need for our own cars, for countless other reasons, if that need was present prior to the arrival of COVID-19.

 

What does this all mean for dealers? I think America’s auto dealers understand full well that they provide their customers with something that is irreplaceable under any circumstance, and that will continue to be irreplaceable under any circumstance well into the future.

 

The sky wasn’t falling in 2018, and the post-pandemic world won’t usher in a windfall. The vital importance of personal vehicle ownership won’t be established, and probably won’t be broadened much as a result of the pandemic. Simply reaffirmed.

 

For the past seven years, Chicagoland’s new-car dealers have led the charge in supporting hometown heroes by hosting Barbecue for the Troops community fundraisers for the USO of Illinois. 

While this year is unique, local dealers know the need is there — perhaps now more than ever — to help local military families, which is why dealerships are encouraging the public to stop in on Saturday, Oct. 3, or at any time in the month of October, to make a donation to the USO of Illinois. Donations also are accepted online through participating dealership websites and at DriveChicago.com. 

The partnership between the Chicago Automobile Trade Association and the USO of Illinois dates to 2013 when the first Barbecue for the Troops fundraisers were held. Since then — and nearly 600 fundraisers later — local dealerships have rallied their communities in support of the USO of Illinois to raise nearly $900,000 for local military who are serving on the home front during the COVID-19 pandemic and on the frontlines around the world.

"Despite these challenging times, it’s evident that dealers want to make a difference," said CATA Chairman Kevin Keefe. "The mentality to help others is deeply rooted within local car dealers, and they’re among the first to roll up their sleeves and help when people need it most. 

"While the USO Barbecue for the Troops campaign is just one of many charitable initiatives that dealers support, it’s a perfect example of how these local businesses can rally their communities like not many can to all come together around one great cause." 

USO of Illinois Executive Director Christopher Schmidt said: "In these unprecedented times, the generous support of local new-car dealers and our hometown communities is more important than ever. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the brave men and women who wear the cloth of our nation continue their mission without pause, deploying around the world as well as here at home in support of the fight of COVID-19 across Illinois. 

"The USO stands with our service members and their families as the ‘Force Behind the Forces,’ continuing to provide essential services, programs and activities even through the pandemic. Thank you to all our local dealerships and their patrons — without whom we could not continue our mission." 

The CATA also is providing an opportunity for people to get involved on social media. Beginning Sept. 21, fans can nominate someone who deserves to win the contest’s grand prize, the #BBQ4Troops Ultimate At-Home BBQ. The prize is complete with a Real Urban Barbecue catering gift card, BBQ essentials for at-home grilling and a Chicago Blackhawks Patrick Kane autographed hockey puck. Visit Drive Chicago on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter for more details and to enter.

See DriveChicago.com for the complete list of dealership fundraisers on Oct. 3 and details on how to make an online donation. 

The USO, a nonprofit, non-political organization, has for more than 75 years provided Americans with a tangible way to express appreciation and gratitude for the dedication and sacrifice of the nation’s troops and their families.

For more information about the USO of Illinois, visit USOofIllinois.org.

 

Under a new system that begins its rollout Oct. 1, Illinois dealerships will use paper stock issued by the secretary of state’s office to print temporary registration permits and hand them to customers.

The change comes as an effort to improve the process and because the plastic sheath that covers the fiberboard material used for the current TRPs no longer is available, said Thomas Steven, the managing assistant to Ernie Dannenberger, director of the office’s Vehicle Services Department.

Existing TRPs will be discontinued after Nov. 3. Expirations on the new TRP will remain the same at 90 days. A secretary of state facility could issue a subsequent TRP, if needed.

In the new system, SuperUsers (an administrator or manager) will assign packages of 25 TRPs to each User (issuer), who cannot share or reallocate any from that supply. Each lost, stolen or destroyed TRP will result in a $151 fine. Further misuse of any permit will be met with a $175 fine per instance and possible loss of system access or criminal charges.

The secretary of state will reach out to dealer licensees in early October and issue usernames and passwords to access its system to generate TRPs. Based on their recent registration activity, the office also will issue licensees 90-day supplies of TRP stock.

 

The secretary of state prepared a slide deck to help train users on the new system. It faces refinement, as one field that calls for a driver’s license number actually seeks to obtain the dealership number issued by that office.

Whereas Illinois license plates can contain no more than seven characters, the new TRP features eight — six numerals separated by two letters. The smaller TRP for motorcycles has four numbers and two letters.

Dealerships must maintain envelopes to store receipts for each set of 25 TRPs plus any voided TRPs from that set. Voided TRPs must be returned on a monthly basis to Springfield.

The secretary of state is operating a hotline, (217) 524-4329, for dealership employees to call with questions.