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COX Automotive Publishes Sales Forecast for 2024

Friday, January 05, 2024 9:00 AM | Anonymous member (Administrator)

The 2024 COX Automotive Sales Forecast for 2024 details five key insights that will likely steer future sales. Those include the following:

  1. Slow Growth Ahead, But It Sure Beats a Recession.
  2. Vehicle Supply Is Back, Favoring Consumers, Placing Downward Pressure on Prices.
  3. In 2024, We Officially Bid Farewell to the Seller’s Market.
  4. In the Electric Vehicle Market, 2024 Will Be the Year of More – More Models, More Incentives, More Discounting, More Advertising, and More Sales Muscle.
  5. In the Electric Vehicle Market, 2024 Will Be the Year of More – More Models, More Incentives, More Discounting, More Advertising, and More Sales Muscle.

COX also detailed some interesting trends in 2023:

  • Three-year-old wholesale depreciation finished the year at 86.0%, approximately 4.0% lower than pre-Covid years and 6.6% higher than last year. Used retail and new retail sales finished strong the end of December, pushing down days’ supply for both.
  • Dropping 0.6% week over week, the 3 year-old MMR index finished the year at 86.0%. The pre-Covid years averaged ~90.0% and 2022 finished at 79.4%.
  • Non-luxury finished down 12.2% from week one and luxury finished down 17.8%.
  • 2020 model year non-luxury wholesale values decreased 12.2% in 2023 and retail values decreased 14.1%.
  • 2020 model year luxury wholesale values decreased 17.8% and retail values decreased 21.9%.
  • Six-week lagged spreads dropping some for non-luxury due to end of the year retail depreciation and increasing for non-luxury due to sharper wholesale declines a few weeks ago.
  • During 2023, 2020 model year non-luxury retail values decreased 14.1% and luxury decreased 21.9%.
  • Used retail sales ended the year relatively strong. Days’ supply dropped to 43 days.
  • New car sales also ended the year relatively strong, pushing days’ supply down to 52.

Click here to read the full forecast.

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