Area new light vehicle registrations increased 17.1% during the first three months of 2024 vs. depressed year-earlier levels. The national retail market was up 6.9%. Note: reported registrations in the First Quarter of last year were especially weak, likely due to registration processing delays. This contributed to the sizeable percentage increase in Q1 ‘24.

2024 Forecast: According to Auto Outlook’s forecast, registrations are now expected to exceed 318,000 units this year and increase 6.7% from 2023. That projection is 15% higher than the total in 2022 when the market was significantly impacted by product shortages but is still below the pre-pandemic level of 354,256 units in 2019.

Key determinants for the market: The shaded box on the right reviews the primary forecast determinants. Pent-up demand is still significant, and the area labor market is strong. Vehicle affordability is still a concern but should improve as the year progresses. As pointed out in the previous release of Auto Outlook, barring any unforeseen negative shocks (such as the possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East), we think the new vehicle market could be stronger than expected in 2024.

Tracking alternative powertrain sales: Area BEV registrations were up 6.6% in the First Quarter of this year versus a year earlier, and market share increased to 7.8%. Gains have levelled off during the past few quarters, however. Hybrid registrations exceeded 7,400 units in Q1 ‘24 and improved 81% versus year earlier. Plug in hybrid market was up 8% (see page 6).

Brands that fared best in early 2024: Among the top 25 sellers in the area market, Buick, Lexus, Honda, Mazda, and Cadillac had the largest percentage gains in the First Quarter of this year. Honda, Toyota, Chevrolet, Ford, and Hyundai were market share leaders.

Top 10 selling models in the Chicago area so far this year include: Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV4, Tesla Model Y, Honda Civic, Mazda CX-5, Hyundai Tucson, Ford F-Series, Nissan Rogue, Honda HR-V and Chevrolet Equinox.

Download the complete Q1 2024 Chicago Auto Outlook